Scientific Thinking and Avoiding Avalanches
Sorry, looking at crystals in a snowpit is not snow science. That’s called observing snow. Science is done by scientists using the scientific method.
As backcountry skiers, we are not doing science, but we do use knowledge and technology from science to avoid avalanches. We also use scientific thinking to avoid avalanches. Scientific thinking is a way to think, learn, make better decisions, and get closer to the truth. This crossover between avoiding avalanches and science is because both are packed with uncertainty and both deal with abstract problems that you can’t get your hands on.
In a series of posts I will expand on scientific thinking for avoiding avalanches. These add to previous articles on scientific thinking (e,g. Carpenter 2022, Grant 2021, and Salovey 2018), which include curiosity, using evidence, and changing your mind.
Scientific Thinking #1 Use a Method
Both science and avoiding avalanches use a method (system). In this context, method and system have a similar definition: using a set of principles to accomplish a goal.
Science is done using the scientific method, a process that has been refined over hundreds of years and is still being debated and refined. Although there is no single, agreed-upon “scientific method,” what follows are its main ideas (Stock 1985). The scientific method involves developing a question about a topic, usually inspired by something observed in the field. The scientist then develops a hypothesis that can be tested. A hypothesis is a potential explanation based on limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation. The scientist then collects evidence by making observations and tests on that hypothesis. Conclusions can be drawn by analysing the data. With enough conclusions, a theory—an accepted principle to explain a phenomena—may evolve. The scientific method is not linear, but more chaotic with overlapping and interchanging steps.
Each aspect of the scientific method is applicable to avoiding avalanches (Stock 1985, Elder and Birkeland 1994).
Like trustworthy scientists who use the scientific method, savvy backcountry users apply an avalanche-avoidance system (Stock 2024). This system allows avalanche workers to operate day after day in a high risk environment with relatively few accidents. Like the scientific method, there is no single, agreed-upon avalanche avoidance system, but it includes some variation of the system below:
A Sample Avalanche Avoidance System (Method)
1. Plan your trip: e.g. determine the avalanche danger, problems, terrain to avoid, etc.
2. Do trailhead checks: e.g. group gear, beacon check, discuss plan, etc.
3. Communicate at safe zones: e.g. speak with candor, listen to everyone, etc.
3. Observe conditions: e.g. condition of the weather, snowpack, and partners.
3. Add margins for safety: e.g. spread out, stop in a safe zone, spot your partner, etc.
4. Debrief: e.g. what mistakes did I make? how can I do better next time? etc.
An avalanche avoidance system. From The Avalanche Factor (Stock 2024).
References
Carpenter, Sarah. 2022. Observation Overload: How to Prioritize Data from Pits, Weather and Snowpack, Backcountry.
Elder, Kelly and Birkeland, Karl. 1994. Snow Science, Necessary Instruments and the Scientific Method, The Avalanche Review 12:6.
Grant, Adam. 2021. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know.
Salovey, Peter. 2018. We Should Teach All Students in Every Discipline to Think Like Scientists, Scientific American.
Stock, Joe. 2024. The Avalanche Factor.
Stock, Molly. 1985. A Practical Guide to Graduate Research.
